中國房地產業﹕全球經濟最重要的行業？ 2011年03月19日

中國不斷增強的經濟影響力出現又一裡程碑：瑞銀(UBS)新興市場經濟學家安德森(Jonathan Anderso)說，中國房地產業已成為全球經濟中最重要的一個行業。

長期觀察中國經濟的安德森周三在一份研究報告中說：房地產和住房建設已經成為中國增長模式的顯著特征，它們是決定大宗商品需求的最重要因素；也是造成中國外部盈余的重大推手；還是真正理解中國家庭的資產負債表、儲蓄和投資行為以及有關中國再平衡討論的關鍵一環。換句話說，從宏觀經濟學的視角看，如果你不理解中國的房地產業，你就不理解中國。

許多全球投資者並不會覺得上述言論有多麼令人吃驚，他們在過去一年中看到，由於中國政府在同飛漲的房價作鬥爭的同時還要避免過分打擊建築業，許多公司的股價因此遭受打擊。但無論如何，中國房地產業仍是這個時代的顯著標志。正如安德森寫所指出的，直到不久前，對於“哪個行業對世界經濟是最重要的”這個問題，最恰當的答案還幾乎肯定是美國金融業或美國住房市場。

數字最能說明問題。中國是世界上最大的鋼鐵消費國，安德森說房地產業直接佔了中國鋼鐵消費量的40%，而家電制造、汽車制造和房地產這三個行業則直接佔據了中國鋼鐵消費量的50%以上。據安德森觀察，中國人購買新房之後，通常會購置家電和汽車。類似的邏輯同樣適用於水泥、鐵礦石、煤炭和建築設備等產品。

據瑞銀估計，房地產建設去年對中國GDP的貢獻率超過13%（其中75%是住房建設），是6%這一上世紀90年代平均水平的兩倍多。安德森說，這可以解釋為什麼投資在中國經濟中佔據了如此大的比重。據估計去年這一比重約為47%至48%。安德森說，對於戰後任何一個大型經濟體來說，這都絕對是最高記錄，僅此一點就幾乎足以解釋中國為何能實現爆炸性的實際增長。

那麼，中國的房地產市場會是一個泡沫嗎？繁榮又能持續多久呢？對於這些十分重要的問題，安德森暫時避而不談，只說他的同事汪濤（瑞銀中國經濟學家）會在下周論及這些問題。

《華爾街日報》

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